Depending on the continent and climate zone, natural fibers grow all year round. The dependence on local and global weather influences changes the quality and quantity of the fibers at the time of harvest or during and after cleaning and processing.
Geopolitical or regional events are other factors affecting the availability of natural fibers. In the case of statistical evaluations, it must be taken into account that some regional harvest periods also take place at the turn of the year.
World natural fibre production in 2022 is estimated at 33.7 million tonnes, an increase of approximately 600,000 tonnes from 2021, and 100,000 tonnes greater than the estimate published in August.
World production of natural fibres in 2023 is forecast at 32.4 million tonnes. The estimate is down 600,000 tonnes from the forecast published at the end of July because of a surprisingly large reduction in the estimate for cotton.
Forecasts by USDA, Cotton Outlook (a private forecasting firm) and IWTO are available for 2023 cotton and wool production. Monthly data for the first seven months from the Philippines is the basis for the 2023 forecast of abaca production. Jute production is estimated from reports of crop conditions in Bangladesh and India. Forecasts for 2023 production for other fibres are based on trend extrapolations.
World cotton production is forecast by USDA down 3.5% in 2023/24 to 24.8 million tonnes. The world yield was record high in 2022/23. A 4% reduction from that record to 777 kilograms of lint per hectare is projected in 2023/24. Cotton Outlook is forecasting 2023/24 world cotton production at 25.4 million tonnes, a difference of 600,000 from USDA. Differences between forecasting agencies are common at this stage of each season.
Excerpt from the six page report September 2023:
…. The nearby cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 3% at the end of August at $ …. Prices quoted by the Indian Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of August converted to US$ were 6% lower …. Prices of silk (grade 3A; Denier 20/22D; regain 11%) in China converted to USD rose 3% during …. Coir fibre in India quoted in US$ have shown little change during the past year and averaged $ ….The Eastern Market Indicator of prices for fine wool in Australia slumped 7% in August to US$ …. The British Fleece Wool Price Indicator of broad wool prices (used in carpeting, blankets and other broad-yarn applications) was $ …. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee issued an August update confirming its April estimate of shorn wool production for the 2022/23 season (July-June) at …. The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index for backhaul traffic from US West Coast ports to China (FBX02) for 40' containers, including surcharges, fell …. A severe drought is forcing authorities to lower the number of crossings and bar ships with heavy loads from using the Panama Canal. The increased congestion will be a concern to …. World production of mohair declined from ….
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The DNFI World Natural Fibre Update is provided by: Dr. Terry Townsend, DNFI Statistics and Data Analysis Expert.